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Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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