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Amid the immense confusion regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but this past Saturday morning marked its first major military attack on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another state and abduct its leader – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.

Put aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

It is widely rejected the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may regret it if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.